Global Health Economics Summit

Biography

Biography: Wael Eweida

Abstract

The “Scenario-based Prediction-of-Events” theory and conceptual model predicts the occurrence of future events according to different potential scenarios based on fixed certainities that include business, humanistic, and system-related factors, as well as other unexpected uncertainties. The new theory and model can be applied in any sector at the different industries. Upon applying the theory in the healthcare industry, it was found that the new model has the ability to link different scenarios of disease prognosis to healthcare operations management and economics, and strategic planning of rescource utilization in the future. The theory does not consider the incidence of an event as the deviation from the usual scenario, but rather deals with the occurrence of the different events in disease prognosis as predicted scenarios with varying likelihoods of occurrence, that all deviate from the best-case scenario called the “Zero-base scenario”. Prediction of how a certain disease will behave and creating scenarios based on the certainties (historical data) and the uncertainties (future expectations) using scenario-based analysis and planning is an innovative economic model to predict all the possible consequences of disease prognosis on the consumption of the resources of a healthcare organization. Developing SOPs for each written scenario with expected cost and capacity requirements will help the organization better strategically predict future needs for capacity-building and lead to better management of healthcare economics and resources based on strategic planning and readiness. By building alternative scenarios, you can foresee more unknowns that may happen and strategically plan measures to control the health economics.